Competing energy strategies: China and the US
Part 1: Understanding relations through energy
Introduction
So far this blog series has largely stayed away from discussing the US and
China. The focus has been on renewable energy developments in the UK and
countries that are close and comparable in Europe. Looking to Norway shows us
where renewable energy can take us and looking to Spain and Portugal shows
us what risks it can pose, and how to mitigate them.
The following series of blogs aims to take our understanding further. I want to
understand the competing energy strategies between China and the US and
what each means for Europe. And attempt to answer the following questions:
how independent is Europe’s energy strategy? Where it is not independent, is
Europe a battle ground for energy influence between China and the US? And if
so, who has the upper hand?
To answer these questions will be a four part blog series. Part 1 will establish a broad picture of relations between the US and the UK and Europe, China and the UK and Europe, and the conflicts of those relations. The implications of this competition will be largely focussed on the UK but will be applied to the rest of Europe where applicable. While the EU can be thought of as a bloc in many ways, consideration will be given to individual national strategies and performance.
Parts 2 and 3 will examine China's and the USA’s energy roadmaps and what each means for the UK and Europe. Finally, Part 4 will highlight key areas of comparison and conclude on the questions posed in this blog.
China. The focus has been on renewable energy developments in the UK and
countries that are close and comparable in Europe. Looking to Norway shows us
where renewable energy can take us and looking to Spain and Portugal shows
us what risks it can pose, and how to mitigate them.
The following series of blogs aims to take our understanding further. I want to
understand the competing energy strategies between China and the US and
what each means for Europe. And attempt to answer the following questions:
how independent is Europe’s energy strategy? Where it is not independent, is
Europe a battle ground for energy influence between China and the US? And if
so, who has the upper hand?
To answer these questions will be a four part blog series. Part 1 will establish a broad picture of relations between the US and the UK and Europe, China and the UK and Europe, and the conflicts of those relations. The implications of this competition will be largely focussed on the UK but will be applied to the rest of Europe where applicable. While the EU can be thought of as a bloc in many ways, consideration will be given to individual national strategies and performance.
Parts 2 and 3 will examine China's and the USA’s energy roadmaps and what each means for the UK and Europe. Finally, Part 4 will highlight key areas of comparison and conclude on the questions posed in this blog.
UK-US energy relations
The wind only blows one way across the Atlantic
The US’ energy strategy has made it a pariah state to Europe since January 2025. While much of Europe pushes towards net zero emissions by 2030, the US wants more fracking and more fossil fuels and it wants Europe to play along.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports surged to Europe in recent years, amounting to three quarters of US LNG exports. The renewable energy transition would see the European market shrink for US imports.US Energy Secretary Chris Wright insists the UK abandon its renewable
progress by returning to fracking and expanding North sea oil and gas extraction claiming that renewables will “impoverish” the population.
During his trip to Brussels Wright spoke of his “serious concerns” for the UK over Chinese influence over the renewable energy sector.
Reform UK is ready and willing to grant the US its wishes should they gain power as will other emerging far-right parties across Europe.
The UK and US are on split paths. While the UK pursues an 81% decline in emissions by 2035 from 1990 levels, the US has cut support for renewables and plans to Drill Baby, Drill! by putting its domestic coal and crude oil first.
Alternatively, Arizona, Iowa, and South Dakoda represent more transitioned states with leading shares of renewable energy of their total production with 52% - 63%. (With such regional diversity and diversity of governing states, it's sometimes better to think of the US as a continent). Additionally, a half dozen other states have renewables producing over a third of their energy. However, federal rhetoric strongly favours maintaining domestic fossil fuel production.
As a great exporter of culture, and as a long standing security guarantor, the US has an asymmetrical influence over the UK. Contrary to the touted “Special Relationship" the wind only blows one way across the Atlantic.
The tear in the transatlantic relationship is not limited to energy. A certain meeting last March between Zelenski and the main heads of the Whitehouse laid open the fact that the US will treat its allies however it suits them. The debacle, and later Signal message leaks, exposed the United States’ view of its allies as free-loaders in something of a parent-child relationship in security matters.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports surged to Europe in recent years, amounting to three quarters of US LNG exports. The renewable energy transition would see the European market shrink for US imports.US Energy Secretary Chris Wright insists the UK abandon its renewable
progress by returning to fracking and expanding North sea oil and gas extraction claiming that renewables will “impoverish” the population.
During his trip to Brussels Wright spoke of his “serious concerns” for the UK over Chinese influence over the renewable energy sector.
Reform UK is ready and willing to grant the US its wishes should they gain power as will other emerging far-right parties across Europe.
The UK and US are on split paths. While the UK pursues an 81% decline in emissions by 2035 from 1990 levels, the US has cut support for renewables and plans to Drill Baby, Drill! by putting its domestic coal and crude oil first.
Alternatively, Arizona, Iowa, and South Dakoda represent more transitioned states with leading shares of renewable energy of their total production with 52% - 63%. (With such regional diversity and diversity of governing states, it's sometimes better to think of the US as a continent). Additionally, a half dozen other states have renewables producing over a third of their energy. However, federal rhetoric strongly favours maintaining domestic fossil fuel production.
As a great exporter of culture, and as a long standing security guarantor, the US has an asymmetrical influence over the UK. Contrary to the touted “Special Relationship" the wind only blows one way across the Atlantic.
The tear in the transatlantic relationship is not limited to energy. A certain meeting last March between Zelenski and the main heads of the Whitehouse laid open the fact that the US will treat its allies however it suits them. The debacle, and later Signal message leaks, exposed the United States’ view of its allies as free-loaders in something of a parent-child relationship in security matters.
UK-China dynamics
China over Europe's position on the globe
In an interview that went viral with Andrew Marr, CCP spokesperson Victor Gao unambiguously stated the Chinese perspective of the UK. Responding to whether the UK is a rival to China he said: “Britain is not a rival, is not a competitor, is not an enemy, is not an adversary. (It is) just an important country to get along with”. He finishes by stating that China is a reality for the UK to
accept and live in peace with.
China is the largest trading partner for 130 countries. It leads in AI and as an electric vehicle (EV) exporter and holds almost half the world’s supply of polysilicon, a critical component in PV panels. Better to get along and not overestimate China's reliance on your economy, he and others advise the UK.
The scale of China's energy production is so large that it is both the largest emitter of greenhouse gases and the top producer of renewable energy. Leaping towards a renewable future, China increased PV energy production by 1000gW between January and May this year. Equalling an increase the size of Turkey's total national production in five months!
So much for the UK being a competitor.
China is the biggest exporter of EVs and it intends to stay on top. It is a competitor to the EU within the EU. Widespread Net Zero goals present China with an enormous market, one that it is breaching into despite EU tariffs. Its models out compete the EU’s in availability and price, providing a ready option for the EU and the UK to adopt.
The issue of security is never far from the discussion of trade with China. Concerns over Chinese software in everyday items harvesting data hamper China's path to launching its full export capacity. Sceptics view cheap Chinese exports as a trojan horse for data collection and political meddling.
The US highlights “serious concerns” as a way to steer the UK and EU away from trade with China.
Speaking on this, policy analyst Winnie King describes the UK as walking on a “tightrope” as it upholds its commitment to US alignment while maintaining a healthy relationship with China.
Dialogue from China to the UK is far leaner than that of the US. China speaks in a language of practicality and economic logic rather than appealing to common identity or historic ties like we hear with the US. Sino-UK relations are to be based on common interests while respecting their different identities, Ms. King says.
China has already quietly integrated into the UK. We might not consume its media or follow their celebrities but we consume their goods and software each day. Much of the unseen workings of the country are supported or owned by Chinese investors in freight and energy infrastructure, in property and financial services.
UK universities are increasingly reliant on foreign students, largely from India and China. Chinese-UK collaboration in research produced 100 peer-reviewed academic papers in 1999 and over 16,000 in 2019, 11% of total output.
China climbed from the 26th to 5th largest UK trade partner from 1999 to 2024.
China is well integrated economically and intellectually but culturally distant. Frosty relations with China asymmetrically harm the UK, warns Terry Chapendama, expert on UK-China trade. The UK should not risk damaging its prospects as an independent economy by aggravating China with calls of espionage and technological meddling. It's better to keep things smooth, trade experts advise.
accept and live in peace with.
China is the largest trading partner for 130 countries. It leads in AI and as an electric vehicle (EV) exporter and holds almost half the world’s supply of polysilicon, a critical component in PV panels. Better to get along and not overestimate China's reliance on your economy, he and others advise the UK.
The scale of China's energy production is so large that it is both the largest emitter of greenhouse gases and the top producer of renewable energy. Leaping towards a renewable future, China increased PV energy production by 1000gW between January and May this year. Equalling an increase the size of Turkey's total national production in five months!
So much for the UK being a competitor.
China is the biggest exporter of EVs and it intends to stay on top. It is a competitor to the EU within the EU. Widespread Net Zero goals present China with an enormous market, one that it is breaching into despite EU tariffs. Its models out compete the EU’s in availability and price, providing a ready option for the EU and the UK to adopt.
The issue of security is never far from the discussion of trade with China. Concerns over Chinese software in everyday items harvesting data hamper China's path to launching its full export capacity. Sceptics view cheap Chinese exports as a trojan horse for data collection and political meddling.
The US highlights “serious concerns” as a way to steer the UK and EU away from trade with China.
Speaking on this, policy analyst Winnie King describes the UK as walking on a “tightrope” as it upholds its commitment to US alignment while maintaining a healthy relationship with China.
Dialogue from China to the UK is far leaner than that of the US. China speaks in a language of practicality and economic logic rather than appealing to common identity or historic ties like we hear with the US. Sino-UK relations are to be based on common interests while respecting their different identities, Ms. King says.
China has already quietly integrated into the UK. We might not consume its media or follow their celebrities but we consume their goods and software each day. Much of the unseen workings of the country are supported or owned by Chinese investors in freight and energy infrastructure, in property and financial services.
UK universities are increasingly reliant on foreign students, largely from India and China. Chinese-UK collaboration in research produced 100 peer-reviewed academic papers in 1999 and over 16,000 in 2019, 11% of total output.
China climbed from the 26th to 5th largest UK trade partner from 1999 to 2024.
China is well integrated economically and intellectually but culturally distant. Frosty relations with China asymmetrically harm the UK, warns Terry Chapendama, expert on UK-China trade. The UK should not risk damaging its prospects as an independent economy by aggravating China with calls of espionage and technological meddling. It's better to keep things smooth, trade experts advise.
Ending note
While a very different entity, the UK and EU find themselves far more aligned to China’s developing energy transition over its traditional ally the USA. While European countries demonstrate significant shifts to renewable energy acting largely as an independent bloc, continued growth cannot remain separate from China’s stature as a sustainable technology giant.
The USA’s divergent path on energy may just push the UK and other European countries to reposition more just their energy mix. It seems that energy transformation requires a transformation of long standing international partnerships too.
The USA’s divergent path on energy may just push the UK and other European countries to reposition more just their energy mix. It seems that energy transformation requires a transformation of long standing international partnerships too.
